SNL Kagan recently released their tower projections through 2025. While there was a decline in active sites during 2014 due to the site decommissioning of Nextel, Leap Wireless, and MetroPCS, SNL Kagan thinks the shrinkage will pass. A number of positive events and trends outweigh the temporary lull of carrier consolidation, including: (1) Consumer demand for mobile data has ramped up like the blade of a hockey stick and will continue to follow that path for several more years; Cisco estimates U.S. mobile data traffic will grow 7x from 2014 to 2019. (2) The recently concluded AWS-3 auction will generate an uptick in lease amendments and corresponding new equipment roll outs. A similar demand spike will follow the 600MHz incentive auction which is scheduled to start in 2016,” John Fletcher with SNL Kagan explained. Fletcher also noted that now FirstNet has the funding to build out the 700MHz band. They will create a new tenant for approximately 20,000 to 40,000 towers across the nation. “Looking back, the U.S. has experienced a wireless technology upgrade roughly every 10 years since Analog 1G premiered in 1984,” Fletcher wrote. “Prior to and following both 3G and 4G commercial launches, tower and site growth spiked, then plateaued. Our forecast for 5G (we think 5G could emerge in the early 2020’s) mirrors this pattern. While 5G standards have yet to be set, pundits anticipate it will be the first of the wireless technologies to boast throughput rates measured in Gbps.”Tower projections
This recent news item caught our attention from the New York Times Technology Section:
Published: May 13, 2013
News from the technology industry, including start-ups, the Internet, enterprise and gadgets.
“Samsung’s latest innovation is expected to invigorate research into 5G cellular communications across the world,” the company said. “The company believes it will trigger the creation of international alliances and the timely commercialization of related mobile broadband services.”
Once commercialized, 5G mobile technology will allow users to transmit huge data files, like high-quality digital movies, “practically without limitation,” it said.
The European Union announced earlier this year a plan to invest €50 million, or $65 million, in research to deliver 5G mobile technology by 2020.
As we have repeatedly said, faster speeds and more services are what wireless will provide in the future….this is an expected development, using a different part of the radio spectrum, but be assured that this means more overall spectrum being deployed and that means more infrastructures will need to be built. So READY or NOT…Here they come!